TLDR:
Bitcoin Puell Multiple’s cycle low of 0.53 is its highest bottom recorded since 2018 began.
Sub-0.65 Puell readings since 2013 preceded median 180-day gains near 55 percent historically.
Large Bitcoin orders added $1.4B in positive delta as retail sold roughly $604M near $64,700.
Bitcoin’s shallower price drawdowns each cycle, not halvings, explain the rising Puell floor.
Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple has posted its highest cycle bottom on record, with the current reading at 0.84 after falling to a low of 0.53.
The metric measures miner revenue against its 365-day average, and each cycle’s floor has landed higher since 2018.
The trend arrives as separate on-chain data shows large Bitcoin holders absorbing supply sold by smaller traders near the $64,700 level. Analysts say both signals point to shifting market structure rather than a single decisive bottom.
Bitcoin Puell Multiple Marks Its Highest Cycle Bottom
The Bitcoin Puell Multiple tracks miner income from new coins against its own 365-day moving average. A low reading signals miners are earning less than usual from freshly minted supply. Analyst thechessONCHAIN explained that daily readings carry noise, so the depth of the low matters most.
This cycle’s floor sits at 0.53, the highest bottom recorded across four cycles. Prior lows landed near 0.28 in December 2018 and 0.35 in July 2022, with September 2024 reaching 0.49.
The Bitcoin Puell Multiple currently reads 0.84, well above the 0.53 low already logged. Each successive cycle has produced a shallower bottom than the one before it. That pattern has held consistently since the metric first flagged a cycle low in 2018.
According to thechessONCHAIN, the four-year halving is not driving the shallower lows. The Puell Multiple scales both miner revenue and new supply, so halvings cancel out mathematically. The real cause is that Bitcoin’s price now falls less sharply during each downturn.
Historical Bitcoin Puell Multiple Readings Show a Narrower Edge
Since 2013, Bitcoin Puell Multiple readings below 0.65 preceded a median 180-day gain near 55 percent. That figure roughly doubles the 28 percent median return from a random entry point. Drawdowns during these episodes stayed capped between 30 and 40 percent.
Deep bear markets have historically produced steeper drawdowns of 60 to 70 percent. Low Puell Multiple readings tend to arrive with comparatively contained downside risk instead.
Only 57 to 67 percent of these low-reading episodes ended higher after 180 days. That win rate sits barely above Bitcoin’s overall 63 percent baseline for random entries. thechessONCHAIN pointed to July 2022 as an example where the signal still failed to hold.
The 2024 and 2026 lows both formed while Bitcoin’s price remained relatively elevated. That makes them Puell Multiple lows rather than confirmed price bottoms. A move beneath recent lows for several weeks would carry more decisive weight.
Large Bitcoin Orders Absorb Retail Selling Near $64,700
Separate order-flow data from analyst Ardi shows a split between small and large Bitcoin traders. Bitcoin traded near $64,739.37 while retail-sized spot orders posted about $604 million in net selling. Mid-sized orders stayed close to flat, sitting near negative $25 million.
The largest order-size cohort told a different story over the same period, accumulating more than $1.4 billion in positive volume delta. Ardi noted smaller participants have been selling the range while larger buyers absorbed the supply.
This divergence helps explain why Bitcoin has continued forming higher lows recently. Repeated attempts to push price lower have failed to break the broader trading range. Large-order accumulation appears to be offsetting consistent selling pressure from smaller accounts.
Ardi cautioned that a reclaim of $64,800 would need this divergence to persist. A reversal, where large-order buying fades while retail selling accelerates, would weaken the setup. For now, larger orders continue absorbing what smaller traders are selling across the range.
