TLDR
K33 Research says Bitcoin’s traditional four-year price cycles may no longer apply.
Analysts say Bitcoin is shifting from a speculative asset to a store of value.
Bitcoin held near $118,300, up 6.6% for the week, as cooling inflation data eased investor nerves.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs logged ten straight days of net inflows, led by BlackRock’s IBIT.
Traders are split on whether Bitcoin can reach $150,000 by the third quarter.
Bitcoin has followed a four-year pattern for over a decade. New price highs tend to arrive about a year after the mining reward halving events. Now, analysts at K33 Research say this pattern may be breaking down.
In past cycles, Bitcoin peaked roughly 1,060 days after the prior bottom. Halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020 each led to a new all-time high the following year. If history repeated, a peak could come as soon as mid-October.
But K33’s researchers say that playbook no longer fits. They wrote that the impact of halvings is much smaller today than it used to be. Supply shocks that once triggered sharp rallies carry less weight now.
A Maturing Market
The researchers point to wider institutional access and growing interest from sovereign entities as reasons the old cycle may no longer apply. These forces, they say, matter more than the mining reward schedule.
K33 described Bitcoin as moving away from being a purely speculative asset. Instead, they see it becoming a store of value that reacts to global trade tension and inflation pressure.
This shift means Bitcoin’s price may now track macroeconomic events more closely than past halving cycles. That includes interest rate decisions, inflation reports, and currency trends.
Price Action and ETF Demand
Bitcoin has responded to some of those macro signals this week. The asset steadied near $118,300, up 6.6% for the week, after a cooler than expected U.S. inflation report calmed investors.
Ether also gained ground, holding above $3,340 and climbing more than 20% over seven days. Traders are watching to see if it can break to a record high.
Other coins moved higher too. XRP rose 6.4% on the day to $3.09, up 27% for the week. Solana added 5% to reach $170, while Dogecoin gained 6%, trading just above 20 cents.
BNB Coin rose nearly 3% to $708, and Tron’s TRX gained 3.7% to 31 cents. The broader crypto market extended gains for a second straight day.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their tenth straight day of net inflows, totaling $799 million on Wednesday. BlackRock’s IBIT fund led the way with $763 million of that total.
Traditional markets showed a similar pattern. Asian equities dipped as investors adjusted rate-cut expectations, while gold prices edged higher and the dollar weakened.
The dollar index is down roughly 10% so far this year. That decline has helped support dollar-priced assets, including crypto.
Not everyone agrees on what comes next. QCP traders said Bitcoin’s momentum stalled after passing $120,000, with a support zone forming between $114,000 and $118,000.
They pointed to seasonal trading slowdowns and equity market fatigue as possible reasons for a pause. Some downside buying has already appeared in that price range.
Other analysts remain more optimistic. Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, said a move to $150,000 by the third quarter looks increasingly plausible.
He cited ETF inflows, limited new supply, and a weaker dollar as reasons for his outlook. Lee also pointed to potential Federal Reserve rate cuts as a possible tailwind for prices.
