Key Takeaways
Chinese mining industry figure Jiang Zhuoer anticipates Bitcoin’s cyclical bottom to arrive between October and December 2026
The projected price floor sits in the $42,000 to $44,000 zone, derived from historical cycle analysis
The prediction relies on Strategy’s mNAV indicator, which has recently fallen to 0.72, approaching levels last witnessed in May 2022
During the previous market cycle, mNAV reached its nadir six months prior to Bitcoin touching its price floor at $15,476
Jiang has disclosed that he’s liquidated his spot BTC positions and initiated short trades in anticipation of the forecasted downturn
Jiang Zhuoer, a prominent figure in China’s Bitcoin mining sector, has released a cycle-timing analysis projecting Bitcoin’s bear-market floor to materialize sometime between October and December 2026. His analysis points to a price range of $42,000 to $44,000 for this cyclical low.
The analytical framework centers on Strategy’s mNAV (market net asset value) indicator. This measurement evaluates the relationship between Strategy’s equity valuation and the underlying Bitcoin value per share.
When the mNAV reads above 1.0, it indicates the market is assigning a premium valuation to the stock. Conversely, readings below 1.0 signal diminished investor appetite relative to the company’s Bitcoin reserves.
According to Jiang’s observations, Strategy’s mNAV has recently declined to 0.72. He highlights that this level mirrors the 0.7 reading recorded on May 11, 2022, which coincided with the beginning of the previous major market transition.
Previous Cycle Patterns Inform Current Projection
During the last bear market, Strategy’s mNAV reached its lowest point in May 2022, when Bitcoin was changing hands around $31,017. The cryptocurrency subsequently declined to its complete cycle bottom of $15,476 on November 21, 2022 — approximately six months afterward.
Jiang is extrapolating this identical time delay to the present market cycle. With mNAV potentially bottoming in the current period, his framework suggests October 31, 2026, as a probable date for BTC’s price nadir, with a target price in the vicinity of $44,016.
He candidly acknowledged that the model demonstrates greater reliability in timing predictions than in precise price forecasts. His $42,000 to $44,000 range accounts for this inherent uncertainty.
Jiang also referenced the de-anchoring phenomenon affecting STRC and suggested the present mNAV configuration might enable long MSTR/short BTC arbitrage opportunities for certain market participants. He presented this observation as commentary on market mechanics rather than an optimistic Bitcoin outlook.
Jiang’s Current Market Position
In a public statement on X, Jiang disclosed that he has liquidated his spot Bitcoin positions and established short exposure for medium to short-duration trades. He indicated plans to resume accumulating spot holdings as prices converge on the anticipated bottom range.
This announcement emerged as Bitcoin encountered renewed downward pressure in June, with BTC dropping beneath $60,000 and catalyzing more than $850 million in forced liquidations throughout the cryptocurrency market.
Strategy’s stock price similarly experienced significant declines during this market correction as investors retreated from cryptocurrency-correlated equities.
Jiang’s precise model calculation identifies October 31, 2026, as the cycle bottom date, with an estimated BTC valuation near $44,016 at that juncture.
