TLDR
Bitcoin is trading between two major supply clusters forming a decision point
BTC price has pulled back to around $94,000, down 1.5% in 24 hours
Short-term holder Realized Price at $93,364 serves as a macro on-chain support level
Price faces resistance near $94,750 with a bearish trend line forming
BTC failed to maintain position above $95,500 and is now trading below the 100-hour SMA
Bitcoin has entered what analysts describe as a critical “decision point” as it trades between major supply clusters that could determine its next significant move. The cryptocurrency is currently testing key support levels after experiencing a pullback from recent highs.
On-chain analyst Checkmate highlighted how Bitcoin’s position relates to its UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD). This metric reveals substantial supply walls both above and below current price levels.
The URPD shows two massive supply clusters around Bitcoin’s recent trading range. When the analysis was shared, BTC was positioned directly between these supply walls.
This positioning creates what Checkmate termed a “decision point” because any substantial move would affect the profit-loss status of numerous addresses. The lower supply wall potentially offers support as investors who purchased there might defend their break-even point.
Bitcoin is flirting with the Shoprt Term Holder Cost Basis from above 👀
STH Realized Price: $93,364 pic.twitter.com/hQl1V9izWE
— Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) May 5, 2025
Similarly, the upper supply cluster could function as resistance, with holders possibly selling to recover their initial investment.
Since the analysis was published, Bitcoin has experienced a small decline. The asset now leans toward the green supply zone on the chart.
This area may provide sufficient support to prevent further drops, given the large amount of supply purchased within this range.
Key Support Levels Emerge
Another crucial metric in the current analysis is the short-term holder Realized Price. According to CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn, this level sits at $93,364.
This figure represents the average cost basis for Bitcoin holders who purchased within the past 155 days. Historically, this level has served as a boundary between bullish and bearish market trends.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading just above this critical support level. Maintaining position above the short-term holder Realized Price would be considered a positive signal by many technical analysts.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin hovers around $94,000, representing a decrease of approximately 1.5% over the past 24 hours.
The cryptocurrency started a downward correction after failing to hold above the $96,500 zone. BTC declined below several support levels, including $96,200 and $95,500.
Bears pushed the price even lower, beneath $94,500, with a recent low forming at $93,570. While there has been an attempt to recover above $94,000, resistance remains strong near $95,000.
Bitcoin is now trading below both $95,000 and the 100-hour Simple Moving Average, indicating short-term bearish momentum. On the upside, immediate resistance appears near $94,750, coinciding with a bearish trend line visible on hourly charts.
If Bitcoin fails to break above this resistance zone, it could experience another decline. Support levels to watch include $93,750, followed by the $93,500 area.
Market participants are closely watching for the next decisive move. As Checkmate noted, “all it will take is one big red or green candle from here to convince people of a lower high, or bull continuation, respectively.”
The next few days may prove critical for determining whether bulls can regain control or if bears will push prices toward lower support levels.
