TLDR
Bitcoin price currently trading below $83,500, down 24.7% from its all-time high
BTC is facing resistance at $83,500 with a bearish trend line forming
Bull Score Index has dropped to an extremely low level of 10, indicating negative sentiment
Some analysts believe a weakening US Dollar Index could eventually restart the bull run
Over 1,057 BTC aged between 7-10 years recently moved, suggesting long-term holders may be selling
Bitcoin started a recovery wave from the $81,200 zone after extending losses below the $82,500 support. The cryptocurrency managed to push above $82,500 and $83,000 resistance levels, but the recovery appears to have stalled.
The price is currently trading below $83,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. This suggests that buyers are struggling to gain momentum in the current market conditions.
Bitcoin has fallen approximately 24.7% from its all-time high recorded above $109,000 in January. This decline highlights the ongoing bearish pressure affecting the market.
The recovery reached the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent decline from $89,042 to $81,177, but couldn’t continue higher.
There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $83,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. This technical formation could limit upward movement in the near term.
Technical Indicators Present Mixed Signals
The hourly MACD for Bitcoin is now losing pace in the bearish zone. Meanwhile, the hourly RSI remains below the 50 level, indicating that sellers still have an advantage in the short term.
Some analysts remain optimistic despite these bearish indicators. Crypto analyst Javon Marks points to the Relative Strength Index (RSI), noting that Bitcoin’s daily RSI has recently held its breakout level. This pattern has historically preceded upward price movements.
However, other technical signals suggest caution. The Spent Output Age Bands indicator shows that over 1,057 BTC aged between 7-10 years recently moved. This movement of older coins typically suggests that long-term holders might be preparing to sell.
If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $83,500 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Immediate support is near $82,200, with major support at $81,200 and $80,500.
Market Sentiment Continues to Worsen
The CryptoQuant Bull Score Index has reached a remarkably low level of 10, indicating severely bearish market conditions. This index is designed to measure market sentiment for Bitcoin, with scores closer to 100 indicating bullish sentiment and scores approaching 0 indicating bearish conditions.
CryptoQuant Bull Score Index has been signaling bearish conditions (40 or below) since Bitcoin was at $96K.
100 represents the most bullish conditions and 0 the least bullish (or bearish).The Index currently stands at 10. pic.twitter.com/J5vZWYg5Nb
— Julio Moreno (@jjcmoreno) April 3, 2025
The Bull Score Index has been flashing bearish signals—below the critical threshold of 40—since Bitcoin traded around $96,000. The current reading of 10 points to extremely low investor confidence in the short term.
Analyst Titan of Crypto has issued a cautionary note, stressing that Bitcoin needs to maintain its position within a key support channel and keep the weekly RSI above important support levels to avoid further correction.
The major support levels for Bitcoin are currently at $82,200 and $81,200, while the major resistance levels are at $83,500 and $85,000.
Macroeconomic Factors May Provide Hope
Crypto trader CarpeNoctom suggests that a breakdown of the US Dollar Index (DXY) below 100 could spark a bull run for Bitcoin price. The DXY has crashed 8% in the past 80 days, dropping from a high of 110.176 to 101.267.
Typically, a weak US dollar promotes risk-on behavior, allowing risk assets like cryptocurrencies to rally. However, recent tariffs on more than 100 of US trading partners have caused US stock markets and Bitcoin price to decline together.
Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX exchange, has added credence to this bullish prediction by noting that Bitcoin should eventually decorrelate from US tech stocks. Hayes explained that “Global imbalances will be corrected, and the pain papered over with printed money, which is good for BTC.”
According to TraderMagus, the two key Bitcoin price levels to watch include $80,000 and $90,000. A risk-on scenario would appear if BTC drops below $80,000 and recovers, or if the price climbs to $90,000 and shows strength above this level.
Quick market thoughts for the nerds
I don’t have interest in betting on any higher timeframe stuff until we either go lower(sub 80k) or show strength(over 90k). I’m still risk off from 102k
In the mean time intraday is the only thing that makes much sense in this environment.…
— Magus (@TraderMagus) April 4, 2025
The crypto market outlook remains uncertain in the short term, but many analysts believe that once the market stabilizes, Bitcoin could present a buying opportunity for long-term investors.
