TLDR
Smart money traders are increasing their long positions on Ethereum futures
ETH price has been stagnant around $2,068 while Bitcoin has doubled over three years
Institutional investors predict ETH could reach $2,400 soon (22% increase)
Ethereum Foundation’s development priorities have frustrated holders and developers
Despite challenges, ETH maintains advantages in total value locked and stablecoins
Ethereum’s price has been stuck in a rut for months, but institutional investors are betting on a potential turnaround. Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) suggests that “smart money” traders see the current price as oversold and are increasing their long positions on Ethereum futures.
Institutional trading interest in digital assets remains strong. Major firms like Citadel Securities, Susquehanna International, and Jane Street Capital are active participants in crypto markets.
The CFTC publishes a weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report that tracks crypto trading trends. This report helps bring transparency to the market.
According to the latest COT data ending March 25, smart money traders viewed Ethereum’s price of $2,068 as being oversold. They have increased their long positions for two of the past three weeks.
Technical Analysis
Ethereum’s price hasn’t moved much since March. This suggests that institutional investors continue to see now as a good time to buy ETH.
Compared to Bitcoin and many other cryptocurrencies, Ethereum has underperformed. Over the last three years, Bitcoin’s price has more than doubled to $82,244. During the same period, ETH’s price has dropped by 32%.
Even though Ethereum’s price could fall further, futures data indicates that institutional traders believe it could soon reach $2,400. This would represent a 22% increase from its current price.
ETH holders have been unhappy with the Ethereum Foundation’s development priorities. Developers want speed and cheap transactions for their projects. They’ve also asked for more Ethereum-native projects to build momentum.
The Foundation has instead focused on research efforts that align with core values. These include open source, privacy, security, and censorship resistance. The Foundation has remained neutral about Ethereum-native projects.
In October 2024, during ETH San Francisco, there was brief optimism. The price of ETH rose as the community hoped the Foundation would become more responsive. Since then, the price has fallen back to late 2023 levels.
Rob Hadick, General Partner at crypto venture firm Dragonfly, commented on ETH’s performance. “The level of underperformance relative to BTC and SOL clearly shows market concerns about ETH’s relative performance.”
Hadick pointed to issues with “value accrual, protocol revenue and fees.” He noted that Layer 2 solutions are “parasitic” to Layer 1 chains. He also mentioned “a general lack of confidence in the Ethereum Foundation’s claims.”
Despite these challenges, Hadick believes there is still a case for buying ETH. “Ethereum still has an overwhelming advantage in terms of the notional value of TVL, value secured, stablecoins, and RWAs,” he said.
The COT report doesn’t name individual trading firms. However, it does show which groups are more active at a given time.
Dealer firms have increased their ETH futures contracts by 336%. They went from roughly 3,500 contracts in early November to more than 15,000 currently. President Trump’s election has triggered increased investor interest in cryptocurrency.
Leveraged firms include liquidity makers and quantitative trading firms. These groups typically sell crypto futures to dealer counterparties that buy them.
The growth in Ethereum futures that began with Trump’s election continues into 2025. There were 11,819 contracts added last year and another 2,700 contracts year to date. This increase shows that these savvy market participants are investing heavily in anticipation of an Ethereum price rally.
