TLDR
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju predicts 6-12 months of bearish or sideways Bitcoin price action
Declining market liquidity and stalled capital inflows signal an end to the bull cycle
Key valuation metrics like MVRV Ratio Z-score show bearish signals with potential return to $63K
Bitcoin is down 15% in the last month, erasing post-election gains
Analysts remain divided with some still predicting new all-time highs by mid-2025
The Bitcoin bull market has come to an end according to Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of crypto research firm CryptoQuant. On March 17, 2025, Ju posted on X that investors should expect “6-12 months of bearish or sideways price action” as the recent bull run loses momentum.
#Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action. pic.twitter.com/f80bnNhjy4
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) March 17, 2025
Ju pointed to declining liquidity as the main reason for his bearish outlook. “New liquidity is needed. The on-chain realized cap has stalled, signaling no fresh capital inflows,” he explained in a Telegram note to CoinDesk.
This marks a shift in Ju’s position from earlier this month. On March 4, he had stated that the Bitcoin bull cycle would remain slow but “is still intact,” citing neutral readings on key indicators.
#Bitcoin market will likely remain slow until sentiment in the U.S. improves.
There’s no significant on-chain activity, and key indicators are neutral, suggesting the bull cycle is still intact. Fundamentals remain strong, with more mining rigs coming online.
If the cycle ends… https://t.co/fSWl26d0gx pic.twitter.com/byWdweZhSQ
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) March 4, 2025
A recent CryptoQuant report suggests Bitcoin could return to the $63,000 level. The report highlights bearish signals from key valuation metrics like the MVRV Ratio Z-score, which compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value.
When the MVRV Z-score drops below its 365-day moving average, it typically signals that Bitcoin’s price momentum has weakened. This pattern has lined up with deeper corrections or the start of bear markets in the past.
CryptoQuant analysts noted that the $75,000-$78,000 support level is critical. They pointed to weakening Bitcoin demand, shown by slowing whale accumulation and net selling by U.S.-based spot ETFs.
These factors are adding downward pressure on the price. They increase the risk of a deeper price correction in the coming months.
BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has seen three straight weeks of outflows. This trend supports the notion that institutional interest may be cooling off after the initial excitement.
Ju observed that “even with record volume near $100K, Bitcoin’s price barely moved.” He added that “without new liquidity to offset heavy selling, this is a bearish signal.”
Bitcoin is currently down 15% over the past month according to CoinDesk Indices data. This decline has erased any gains made following the U.S. presidential election.
Polymarket bettors are giving a 51% chance that Bitcoin ends the week between the $81,000-$87,000 range. They also see a 31% chance it drops to $75,000 by the end of the month.
Some market watchers express concern that economic uncertainty and global tensions could make the bearish pressure worse. LMAX Group’s Joel Kruger and Coinbase Institutional’s David Duong have warned about these factors to CoinDesk.
Not all analysts share this bearish outlook. Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal told Cointelegraph that “there is no reason to panic.”
Hundal explained that while investors are “spooked” by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, “all the numbers show a global economy that is pointing in the right direction.”
Some analysts remain optimistic based on macro factors. Crypto analyst Seth pointed out that global M2 money supply has reached new highs, which could trigger another Bitcoin rally.
🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨In Aug 2024 I signalled the next leg up after Global Money Supply trending up making new ATH.
I’m saying Global Money supply just made another new ATH. We are about to see #Bitcoin rally again.
This time is not different.
Not financial advice.Always DYOR! https://t.co/uTM0KZaTju pic.twitter.com/a07babxVzZ
— Seth (@seth_fin) March 17, 2025
CoinRoutes CEO Dave Weisberger believes Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs by late April if historical trends hold. “Expect Bitcoin to hit a new ATH within a month if its BETA correlation to money supply holds,” Weisberger said on X.
Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten recently stated there’s “more than a 50% chance we will see all-time highs before the end of June this year.” Bitcoin’s current all-time high of $109,000 was reached on January 20, 2025.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at around $83,030, according to market data.
