TLDR:
Binance recorded 56,000-59,000 BTC inflows on February 2-3, marking the largest deposits since January started.
Short-term holders transferred 54,000 BTC at a loss on February 2nd, signaling panic selling at $74,000 support.
Institutional supply of 155,000 BTC sits underwater between $85K-$95K, creating potential distribution resistance.
Analysts forecast Bitcoin decline to $50,000 by Q2 2025 following anticipated bounce to $85,000-$95,000 range.
Bitcoin’s recent price correction has triggered significant movement of coins to exchanges, with Binance recording its highest inflows since January began.
Between February 2nd and 3rd, the leading exchange received between 56,000 and 59,000 BTC as the cryptocurrency traded near the critical $74,000 support level.
This accumulation of coins on exchanges typically signals potential selling pressure, raising concerns among market participants about near-term price direction and the sustainability of the current trend.
Panic Selling Emerges at Critical Technical Level
The substantial inflows to Binance occurred as Bitcoin tested a pivotal price zone around $74,000. A sustained breakdown below this threshold would challenge the asset’s long-term upward trajectory.
The timing of these transfers reflects growing anxiety among certain investors who moved their holdings to exchanges in anticipation of further declines.
Binance continues to dominate cryptocurrency trading volumes globally. This position naturally makes it the primary destination for coins during periods of market stress.
The exchange absorbed the majority of selling pressure during this window, according to data shared by analyst Darkfost on X.
Short-term holders demonstrated particularly reactive behavior during this phase. On February 2nd alone, approximately 54,000 BTC were transferred at a loss by this cohort.
These investors, known for sensitivity to price fluctuations, contributed meaningfully to the overall flow of coins reaching exchanges.
The selling activity, while substantial, aligns proportionally with the scale of observed transfers. Market observers note this pattern often accompanies capitulation phases where oversold conditions emerge.
Such periods have historically created opportunities for price stabilization and potential reversal formations across various timeframes.
Bearish Outlook Points to Extended Downside Risk
Some analysts maintain a decidedly negative outlook for Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. DeFi researcher Sherlock projects significant downside potential, forecasting an eventual decline toward $50,000 by the second quarter of 2025.
His analysis centers on an anticipated bounce to the $85,000-$95,000 range before resumption of the downtrend.
The analyst identifies approximately 155,000 BTC in institutional holdings acquired between October and December within that price band.
These positions currently sit underwater and may represent substantial resistance if prices recover to those levels. Such supply overhang could trigger what he describes as a major distribution event.
Technical indicators support this cautious stance. The daily Quantum Volume Weighted Average Price, yearly open, and January’s point of control all converge around $85,000-$95,000.
This confluence of resistance levels creates formidable barriers to upward movement, according to the assessment shared publicly.
The forecast suggests any relief rally will serve primarily to trap buyers before continuation lower. Initial targets include $65,000, followed by the $50,000 level within months.
This scenario represents a sharp departure from recent expectations of six-figure valuations and reflects deteriorating technical structure across multiple timeframes.