TLDR:
Gold prices surged 65% in 2025 after three years of sustained central bank buying exhausted willing sellers
Bitcoin ETFs have purchased more than 100% of new supply since January 2024 launch but prices remain stable
Existing bitcoin holders currently absorb ETF demand through sales preventing immediate parabolic price movement
Price acceleration expected once bitcoin sellers run out of supply similar to gold’s delayed market reaction
Bitcoin’s price trajectory may mirror gold’s recent explosive rally if exchange-traded fund demand maintains its current pace, according to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan.
The cryptocurrency veteran drew parallels between gold’s 2025 surge and bitcoin’s current market dynamics, suggesting persistent institutional buying could eventually exhaust available supply from existing holders.
Gold’s Delayed Price Response Offers Blueprint
Central banks dramatically increased gold purchases after the United States seized Russian Treasury deposits in 2022.
Annual acquisitions jumped from approximately 500 tonnes to 1,000 tonnes that year. However, gold prices showed minimal immediate reaction, rising just 2% in 2022 despite the doubled demand.
The precious metal gained 13% in 2023 and 27% in 2024 before experiencing a parabolic move in 2025. Gold prices climbed 65% this year as the market dynamics fundamentally shifted.
Hougan explained that initial central bank demand was absorbed by willing sellers from existing gold holdings.
The prolonged buying pressure eventually depleted available supply from these sellers. Once this selling capacity dried up, prices accelerated dramatically upward.
This pattern demonstrates how sustained institutional demand can create delayed but powerful price effects.
Bitcoin ETFs Follow Similar Demand Pattern
Bitcoin ETFs have purchased more than 100% of new bitcoin supply since their January 2024 launch. Matt Hougan noted on social media platform X that existing bitcoin holders have been meeting this demand through sales.
The price has not yet experienced a parabolic move despite the substantial institutional inflows.
Hougan expects ETF demand to persist over the long term. Supply and demand dynamics govern both gold and bitcoin prices through similar mechanisms.
The crucial difference lies in when existing holders exhaust their willingness to sell at current price levels.
When bitcoin sellers run out of available supply to meet ETF demand, prices could surge dramatically. The gold precedent suggests this transition may take several years to materialize fully.
However, the eventual price impact could prove ETF demand substantial once the market reaches that inflection point.
Bitcoin’s fixed supply schedule makes this dynamic particularly relevant for cryptocurrency markets going forward.
