TLDR
Bitcoin hit a four-month low of $76,606 amid recession fears and global market declines
Arthur Hayes predicts BTC will bottom around $70,000, marking a 36% correction from all-time high
Short-term holders who bought near the peak are driving sell pressure with “moderate capitulation”
Data shows short-term holders are “deeply underwater” between $71,300 and $91,900
Bitcoin has rebounded 7.5% in 24 hours as US markets stabilized
Bitcoin’s recent price action has caught the attention of many investors as the leading cryptocurrency continues its downward trend from its all-time high. The price dip comes amid broader market concerns and shows patterns typical of bull market corrections.
Bitcoin hit a four-month low of $76,606 yesterday. This drop occurred as both cryptocurrency and stock markets tumbled worldwide.
Economic recession fears are growing. The S&P 500 has dropped nearly 8% over the past month, showing the broader market downturn isn’t limited to crypto.
Recent data from prediction market Polymarket shows a 39% chance of a US recession in 2025. This is up from just 23% probability back in February of this year.
Hayes Prediction
Crypto entrepreneur Arthur Hayes weighed in on the situation. The former BitMEX CEO believes Bitcoin will likely find a bottom around $70,000.
Hayes described this potential 36% correction from January’s all-time high of $108,786 as “very normal” in a bull market. He urged crypto investors to remain patient during this period.
According to Hayes, once Bitcoin hits $70,000, traditional markets would need to experience a sharp decline. This would include drops in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, along with some major financial institution failures.
The plan:
Be fucking patient. $BTC likely bottoms around $70k. 36% correction from $110k ATH, v normal for a bull market.
Then we need stonks, $SPX and $NDX to enter free fall. Then we need TradFi muppet to go under.
THEN we get Fed, PBOC, ECB, and BOJ all easing to make…
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) March 11, 2025
Such events would likely prompt central banks to start quantitative easing. The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan would create what Hayes calls an “optimal buying opportunity.”
Glassnode
Onchain analytics firm Glassnode has identified a key factor in the current sell pressure. Their data shows that buyers who purchased near the $109,000 all-time peak in January are now panic-selling.
Glassnode described this as a “moderate capitulation event” with “intense loss realization.” The data shows a clear pattern of short-term holders exiting their positions.
The average purchase price for short-term Bitcoin holders (those holding for less than 155 days) is currently $91,362. With Bitcoin trading around $81,930, these holders face an average unrealized loss of about 10.6%.
Glassnode analysis indicates short-term holders are “deeply underwater” between price points of $71,300 and $91,900. The firm suggests the probability of forming a temporary floor in this zone is “meaningful.”
Market research firm 10x Research called the current situation a “textbook correction.” They noted that approximately 70% of all selling came from investors who bought within the last three months.
Despite the downward pressure, some indicators suggest a potential trend reversal. Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index is at its lowest level since August 2024, which could signal an upcoming recovery.
Additional hope comes from the US dollar index. It recently experienced one of its largest weekly declines since 2013, potentially setting up favorable conditions for risk-on assets like Bitcoin.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $80,008, showing a slight 0.1% increase in the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency has bounced back 7.5% over the past day as US markets stabilized.
