TLDR
Bitcoin currently trading above $114,000 after weekend recovery from $112K
August historically shows negative returns in 5 of last 7 years with average losses of 11.4%
Technical analysis suggests potential dip to $105,000 before possible rally to $118K-$125K
Metaplanet recently acquired 463 BTC worth approximately $53.7 million
Analyst Mike Alfred projects Bitcoin could reach $312,000 before a potential 76% crash to $75,000
Bitcoin has been experiencing some volatility recently, with prices recovering from weekend lows. Currently trading above $114,000, Bitcoin has shown resilience despite August’s historically bearish pattern. Data reveals that Bitcoin has recorded negative returns in 5 of the last 7 Augusts since 2017, with an average loss of 11.4% during these down periods.
The current price action shows Bitcoin holding support at $112,000 after a weekend drop. This level has proved crucial as several analysts point to it as a key support zone that needs to be maintained for continued bullish momentum.
If Bitcoin follows its historical August trend, estimates suggest a potential dip toward $105,000. This level coincides with the bottom trendline of an ascending triangle pattern visible on the Bitstamp daily chart. A break below this structure could threaten the broader bullish outlook.
Despite these short-term concerns, some technical indicators suggest a positive outlook. The TD Sequential indicator has reportedly flashed a “9” buy signal on the 12-hour chart, which typically appears at the end of retracement periods, indicating potential trend exhaustion.
Bitcoin recently broke back inside a bull flag pattern, which some analysts interpret as a sign of recovery. The structure suggests that consolidation above $112,000 could set the stage for a potential breakout toward $118,000 in the near term.
Institutional Buying Continues
Institutional interest in Bitcoin remains strong despite the price volatility. On August 4, Metaplanet, a Japan-based investment firm, acquired an additional 463 BTC worth approximately $53.7 million at an average purchase price of $115,895.
This latest acquisition has increased Metaplanet’s total Bitcoin holdings to 17,595 BTC, positioning the firm among the top seven publicly listed Bitcoin treasuries globally. At current prices around $114,500, their portfolio is valued at over $2 billion.
The continued institutional accumulation suggests confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, even as the market navigates through seasonal patterns and technical resistance levels.
Several analysts have identified the $115,000 level as critical resistance. A decisive close above this level could pave the way for Bitcoin to challenge higher targets at $118,000 and potentially $125,000.
The TD Sequential indicator just flashed a buy signal on Bitcoin $BTC 12-hour chart! pic.twitter.com/kGxt9nWXYF
— Ali (@ali_charts) August 3, 2025
Long-Term Price Projections
Looking beyond the immediate market conditions, some analysts have made bold predictions about Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Market expert Mike Alfred suggests that Bitcoin could reach as high as $312,000 in the current cycle before experiencing a substantial correction.
Alfred bases this projection on previous market cycles. He notes that Bitcoin experienced an 80% crash from $1,000 to $200 in 2014, an 84% decline from $20,000 to $3,200 in 2018, and approximately an 80% decrease from $69,000 to $16,000 following the 2021 peak.
Following this historical pattern, Alfred predicts that after reaching a potential high of $312,000, Bitcoin could experience a 76% decline, bringing prices down to around $75,000. However, he doesn’t expect this crash to occur until 2026, suggesting there may still be significant upside potential in the near term.
For the immediate future, Bitcoin’s price action will likely be dictated by whether it can maintain support at $112,000 and overcome resistance at $115,000. These levels will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin follows its historically bearish August pattern or breaks the trend with a rally toward higher price targets.
The next few trading sessions could prove decisive for Bitcoin’s price direction through the remainder of Q3 2024, with technical indicators providing mixed signals about potential short-term movements.
