TLDR
Bitcoin recently gained bullish momentum after earlier hitting an all-time high of $108,786
Analyst Brett predicts Bitcoin’s cycle top will occur on October 11, 2025
The prediction is based on patterns from previous market cycles in 2017 and 2021
Both previous cycles showed peaks occurring 161 days after the 903-day mark from cycle bottom
Bitcoin is currently trading around $96,500, down about 1% in 24 hours
Bitcoin (BTC) is showing renewed signs of strength after hitting an all-time high of $108,786 earlier this year. Though many thought the current cycle’s peak had already arrived, fresh market movements suggest otherwise, with the premier cryptocurrency building momentum toward reclaiming the $100,000 level.
Crypto analyst Brett recently shared an intriguing timeline for when Bitcoin might reach its ultimate cycle peak. His analysis, posted on X (formerly Twitter), examines Bitcoin’s price structure and potential trajectory for the remainder of this market cycle.
Bitcoin: Bottom to Present. Present to Top.
Last two cycles: 903 days from bottom to present161 days from present to top
🟦 = The amount of time it’s been since the bottom in 2022. I then put that same time (903 days) over the the prior two cycles. 🟩 = The amount of time… pic.twitter.com/w1uz3dmuMW
— ₿rett (@brett_eth) May 3, 2025
Brett’s approach looks at two key time periods: “bottom to present” and “present to top.” By studying patterns from the last two market cycles, he calculated how many days Bitcoin took to move from cycle bottom to current position, and then projected how much longer until the cycle peak.
According to his chart, we’re currently 903 days from Bitcoin’s 2022 bottom. This same 903-day period was marked in previous cycles starting from the 2015 and 2018 bottoms.
What makes this analysis compelling is the consistency found in previous cycles. In both 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin reached its cycle peak exactly 161 days after this 903-day mark.
The 2017 cycle saw Bitcoin reach a then-record high of around $16,000 after this 161-day window. Similarly, in 2021, BTC reached approximately $69,000 after the same timeframe.
Historical Patterns Point to October
If this pattern holds true for the current cycle, Brett projects Bitcoin’s peak will arrive in exactly 161 days from now. This would place the cycle top precisely on October 11, 2025.
This prediction comes at an interesting time in Bitcoin’s price action. After reaching $108,786 at the start of 2025, many thought the peak had already occurred as prices began trending downward.
However, recent price action has challenged this assumption. Bitcoin has been gaining new momentum, leading some to question whether the typical cycle theory still applies to the cryptocurrency market.
The consistency across multiple cycles does give weight to Brett’s analysis. Each previous cycle showed the same 161-day window between the 903-day mark and the ultimate price peak.
However, some market observers have questioned whether Bitcoin still follows these predictable cycles. The initial belief that the bull run had ended in early 2025 now seems premature given Bitcoin’s recent positive price movements.
Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $96,500, representing a slight decline of about 1% over the past 24 hours. Despite this minor pullback, the cryptocurrency remains in striking distance of the psychologically important $100,000 mark.
The analysis doesn’t account for external factors that might influence Bitcoin’s price in the coming months. Market conditions, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic factors could all play roles in determining whether the historical pattern repeats.
Brett’s projection relies purely on historical time-based patterns rather than fundamental or technical indicators. While this approach has shown accuracy in previous cycles, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
As Bitcoin approaches the projected October timeframe, market participants will likely watch with interest to see if this historical pattern maintains its predictive power for a third consecutive cycle.
For now, Bitcoin continues to trade near all-time high levels, with many watching to see if it can reclaim the $100,000 threshold in the coming weeks.
