TLDR
Bitcoin currently trading around $85,880, down 3.16% over the past month
Analyst Jamie Coutts predicts BTC could reach $123,000 by June in best-case scenario
Polymarket data suggests BTC could hit $138,617 by the end of 2025
$16.5 billion in Bitcoin options expire on March 28, potentially affecting short-term price
Despite recent volatility due to tariff concerns, Bitcoin has gained nearly 10% since dipping below $80,000
Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of recovery after months of uncertainty tied to U.S. trade tariffs and macroeconomic factors. Currently trading at around $85,880, down 3.16% over the past month, the cryptocurrency has bounced back nearly 10% since dipping below $80,000 earlier in March.
Real Vision chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts believes Bitcoin will reach new all-time highs sooner than expected. “The market may be underestimating how quickly Bitcoin could surge – potentially hitting new all-time highs before Q2 is out,” Coutts told Cointelegraph.
Coutts based his prediction on easing financial conditions, a weakening US dollar, and increased liquidity from the People’s Bank of China since early 2025. Based on historical US Dollar Index (DXY) performance, he forecasts a range from a worst-case price of $102,000 to a best-case scenario of $123,000 by June 1.
When looking at this recent move in the DXY through a historical lens, its challenging to be anything but bullish. I ran a signal screen for 3-day negative moves of more than -2% & -2.5% and found they have all occurred at Bitcoin bear market troughs (inflection points) or… pic.twitter.com/Lc6izl5U2A
— Jamie Coutts CMT (@Jamie1Coutts) March 6, 2025
This would represent a 13% gain over Bitcoin’s current all-time high of $109,000, which it reached on January 20. Coutts noted that “financial conditions have eased dramatically this month, highlighted by the US dollar’s third-largest three-day decline since 2015 and drops in rates and Treasury bond volatility.”
Data from Polymarket, a leading prediction platform, suggests BTC could hit $138,617 by the end of 2025—a 60% jump from today’s price. Crypto researcher Ashwin analyzed BTC price bets on the platform and found this ceiling represents “a market regaining its footing after tariff-related uncertainty.”
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is testing a critical resistance zone near $88,000, aligning with its 50-day moving average. A breakout above this level could pave the way for a retest of its all-time high near $108,000.
Failure to hold support at $85,000 might trigger a pullback to $76,000—the yearly average that traders consider crucial for maintaining bullish momentum. Technical analysis also indicates that a bullish breakout has occurred above the descending trendline drawn along the lower highs since January 2025.
Multiple forecasts from major financial institutions support the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 again in 2025. JPMorgan predicts $145,000 with 3x Lightning Network growth, while Bloomberg Intelligence forecasts $135,000 if BTC reaches 20% of gold’s market cap.
More bullish predictions come from Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, who forecasts a $250,000 peak if the U.S. Treasury allocates just 0.5% of reserves to BTC. Standard Chartered predicts $200,000 due to $100 billion in ETF inflows by Q4 2025.
Bear case scenarios include BitMEX’s Arthur Hayes warning of a $70,000 floor if ETF outflows spike, and Glassnode tying a $74,000 price to long-term holder realized price. Despite these concerns, $100,000 sits comfortably within the base case predictions.
Bitcoin investors are now preparing for the record-breaking $16.5 billion monthly options expiry on March 28. The actual market impact may be limited, as BTC’s drop below $90,000 caught investors off guard and invalidated many bullish positions.
Currently, the total open interest for call (buy) options stands at $10.5 billion, while put (sell) options lag at $6 billion. However, $7.6 billion of these calls are set at $92,000 or higher, meaning Bitcoin would need a 6.4% gain to make them viable by the March 28 expiry.
For the options expiry, bulls hold a strategic advantage if Bitcoin remains above $86,500. In this scenario, only $2 billion worth of put options will be in play, compared to $3.3 billion in call options.
If Bitcoin can push above $90,000, the advantage for bulls increases substantially, with $4.4 billion in call options versus $1.4 billion in put options. This could create enough momentum to establish a bullish trend for April, especially if inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs resume at a strong pace.
Despite ongoing concerns about the global tariff war and US government spending cuts, Bitcoin bulls remain hopeful for a decoupling from the stock market. Their optimism stems from expansion of the monetary base by central banks and increased Bitcoin adoption by companies like GameStop, Rumble, Metaplanet, and Semler Scientific.
BlackRock’s head of digital assets, Robbie Mitchnick, recently suggested that Bitcoin will likely thrive in a recessionary macro environment. “I don’t know if we’ll have a recession or not, but a recession would be a big catalyst for Bitcoin,” Mitchnick said in a March 19 interview.
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index is at 20, its lowest since January 2023, signaling a weak Bitcoin market with low chances of a strong rally soon. Based on historical performance, if the score remains below 40 for an extended period, it could signal continued bearish market conditions.
For traders and investors, watching the $88,000 resistance level and the outcome of the March 28 options expiry could provide important clues about Bitcoin’s next move. If Bitcoin can clear this resistance and hold above $90,000, the path toward retesting all-time highs becomes clearer.
