TLDR
Economist Henrik Zeberg says the current Bitcoin rally is part of a temporary B-wave bounce within a bearish cycle.
He argues that Bitcoin may have completed a long-term fifth wave near highs above $110000.
The analysis shows Bitcoin could rise in the short term before a deeper correction toward $41492 support.
Bearish divergence on the RSI indicates weakening momentum despite recent price gains.
The monthly MACD is nearing a bearish crossover similar to signals before past bear markets.
Bitcoin is showing recovery signs as it approaches $80,000, but a new warning has emerged. Economist Henrik Zeberg says the current move may precede a deeper Bitcoin crash. He believes the rally is temporary and part of a broader bearish cycle.
Bitcoin Crash Warning Linked to Elliott Wave Structure
Henrik Zeberg shared his outlook in a May 25 post on X. He described the current market move as a “B-wave” bounce. He explained that this phase often appears during broader bearish cycles. It typically creates a temporary rise before a deeper decline.
Zeberg based his analysis on Elliott Wave theory. He tracked Bitcoin’s price structure from its early market cycles. He argued that Bitcoin may have completed a long-term fifth wave. This wave likely formed near recent highs above $110,000.
According to his chart, the broader structure suggests a major top. He linked this formation to price behavior since 2012. Bitcoin price recently retraced to the 0.618 Fibonacci level near $66,426. Zeberg said this level supports a short-term rebound.
He added that the price could rise above current levels during this bounce. However, he maintained that the larger trend remains bearish. His projections showed downside targets near $41,492. He also indicated that prices could fall lower over time.
Technical Indicators Support Bitcoin Crash Outlook
Zeberg pointed to weakening momentum indicators. He said the relative strength index shows bearish divergence. This pattern occurs when prices rise but momentum weakens. It has preceded past Bitcoin market reversals.
He also highlighted the monthly MACD indicator. It is approaching a bearish crossover based on current data. Similar signals appeared before the 2018 and 2022 bear markets. These crossovers often indicate trend reversals.
Another analyst, TradingShot, shared a similar view on May 24. The analyst also cited bearish divergence on the monthly RSI. TradingShot noted that price gains were not supported by strong momentum. This pattern has historically signaled market tops.
A separate cycle-based chart added further context. It combined Bitcoin’s four-year cycles, halving events, and Fibonacci time levels. The chart suggested Bitcoin is entering a bearish phase. It pointed to a possible decline toward $50,000.
This level aligns with the weekly 350 moving average. The indicator has marked previous bear market bottoms. Bitcoin continues to trade below its recent peak above $110,000.
