Trump says the Iran conflict is “very complete” — oil plunges and Bitcoin snaps back above $70k
Bitcoin climbed back above $70,000 Tuesday as crude oil staged a sharp reversal, easing near-term fears of accelerating inflation and giving digital asset markets room to recover.
According to Crypto Finderss data, the largest digital currency jumped over 5% in the last 24 hours, peaking at around $71,164 after slipping below $68,000 earlier in the session.
Brent crude fell more than 6% to around $90 a barrel, retracing much of the previous day’s surge that had briefly pushed the international benchmark to nearly $120. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark, fell by a similar margin as traders reassessed how long a geopolitical premium in energy markets could hold.
The synchronized moves in crude and crypto reflect how tightly Bitcoin’s short-term price action has become linked to macro liquidity signals.
When oil surged on March 9, investors began pricing in the possibility that renewed energy inflation would delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, tightening the financial conditions that have supported risk assets throughout this cycle.
However, the current oil selloff unwound a portion of that positioning and gave Bitcoin buyers a cleaner entry point.
Why did oil price fall today?
Oil’s sharp reversal followed fast-moving developments in the Middle East that reshaped expectations for how long the geopolitical premium would last.
Traders pointed to President Donald Trump’s comments to CBS that the Iran conflict is “very complete, pretty much,” a language that markets took as a potential signal of de-escalation.
Trump also said the US may seek to take control of the Strait of Hormuz and warned that if Iran disrupts flows through the corridor, the United States would respond with far greater force.
He wrote on Truth Social:
“If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far.”
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for energy markets. About 20% of global oil consumption, 27% of global seaborne oil trade, and 20% of global LNG trade pass through it.
In light of those Trump’s remarks, traders were left calibrating between two competing timelines: one in which the geopolitical premium in crude dissipates quickly and inflation fears fade, and another in which the disruption persists long enough to feed into price pressures and central bank policy.
Outside of Trump’s remarks, G7 finance ministers also discussed the possibility of releasing oil into the market to cool the rally in crude prices. The group includes France, Japan, Germany, Italy, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
In their March 9 virtual meeting, they said:
“We stand ready to take necessary measures, including to support global supply of energy such as stockpile release.”
Reports said the volumes under consideration ranged from 300 million to 400 million barrels.
Taken together, those developments pushed traders to reassess Middle East risk and unwind part of the geopolitical premium embedded in crude
How did Bitcoin price recover?
The oil reversal gave traders room to regroup, and some crypto market plumbing began to look less strained, even as energy markets remained volatile.
Data from SoSoValue showed significant institutional interest in the top crypto, with $167.03 million net inflows flowing into the 12 spot Bitcoin ETF products.
This represented a reversal of the 12 funds’ weak performance in the last two trading sessions, which pulled more than $500 million from the investment vehicles.
At the same time, CryptoQuant noted that stablecoin liquidity has started rising again after a tepid performance earlier this year.
According to the firm, this kind of shift is often treated as an indirect gauge of demand that dry powder is entering the market. Notably, DeFiLlama data showed stablecoin supply recently reached a fresh all-time high of $313 billion.
Meanwhile, BTC options positioning data from Coinbase-owned Deribit also showed that BTC traders had significant call buying concentrated near the $75,000 and $80,000 strike before the oil shock.
This was corroborated by blockchain analysis firm Glassnode, which stated:
“Options markets have become less defensive. The volatility spread narrowed meaningfully as implied volatility moves closer to realised conditions, while 25-delta skew declined, pointing to softer demand for downside hedging and a more balanced near-term backdrop.”
US CPI data will determine whether BTC’s recovery holds
The next test for Bitcoin’s recovery arrives with US inflation data due later this week.
Headline consumer price growth has been moderating in recent months, and survey-based measures of short-term inflation expectations had eased before oil’s sudden spike, reinforcing a broadly held view that disinflation remained the dominant trend.
Moreover, market-based measures, including Treasury breakeven inflation rates, rose in the days surrounding the crude shock, indicating that bond investors were pricing in some probability of renewed energy-driven price pressure even as they waited for confirmation.
That divergence frames BTC’s recovery as conditional. If the coming inflation readings remain consistent with the disinflation narrative, the macro backdrop that has supported Bitcoin’s recovery would strengthen, and the options market’s positioning near $75,000 to $80,000 could begin to act as a gravitational pull on spot prices.
Notably, oil’s fundamentals ahead of the US-Iran geopolitical flare-up also pointed in that direction.
Major energy agencies, like the International Energy Agency (IEA), had forecasted production growth outpacing demand through the remainder of the year, and global inventories had been building before the disruption hit.
So, a crude market that settles back toward pre-conflict levels would reduce the inflation risk premium and give the Fed room to proceed with the rate cuts investors had been anticipating.
However, the adverse path runs through a scenario in which crude fails to extend its reversal.
A renewed rally in oil prices back above $100 would likely push breakeven inflation rates higher, harden expectations of Federal Reserve policy, and compress the valuations of broadly rate-sensitive risk assets.
In that environment, Bitcoin would trade in step with high-beta equities, and the focus would shift back to whether spot prices can hold the support levels that failed briefly in previous sessions.
Put simply, analysts at Bitfinex told Crypto Finders/em> that:
“If ETF flows stabilise and macro conditions remain neutral, BTC could grind toward the low-$70,000 region. However, if oil-driven inflation pushes yields higher again, a retest of the $60,000 support region becomes increasingly likely.”
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