TLDR:
Bitcoin BCMI dropped to low 0.2 range, aligning with early bear market phases seen in 2018 and 2022 cycles
The critical 0.5 equilibrium zone failed to hold with no strong rebound observed from the 0.3 support level
Historical cycle bottoms formed between 0.10-0.15, indicating current levels remain above full capitulation
Market probability favors continued weakness unless BCMI stabilizes and reclaims the 0.4 to 0.5 range
Bitcoin Combined Market Index has declined to the low 0.2 range, according to recent analysis from CryptoQuant analyst Woo Minkyu.
The current levels align more closely with early bear market phases observed in 2018 and 2022 rather than typical mid-cycle corrections.
Market structure broke down after failing to hold the 0.5 equilibrium zone in October. The data suggests a potential bear market transition instead of a simple correction.
Historical Patterns Point to Deeper Correction Ahead
Bitcoin BCMI maintained the 0.5 level in October, representing a neutral equilibrium zone for the market. That structure has now clearly broken down without recovery.
The index failed to generate a strong rebound from the 0.3 level. Instead, the market continued directly toward 0.2 without any expansion reset occurring.
This behavior differs markedly from past mid-cycle cooling phases observed in previous Bitcoin cycles. The current price action resembles a risk-off regime transition more than temporary weakness.
CryptoQuant analyst Woo Minkyu shared this analysis, noting the structural shift in market conditions. The breakdown suggests fundamental changes in market dynamics rather than surface-level volatility.
Previous cycle bottoms formed when Bitcoin BCMI reached substantially lower levels than current readings. The 2019 bottom occurred around 0.10 to 0.15 on the index. The 2022-2023 market bottom registered approximately 0.15 on the same metric.
Current levels remain above these historical capitulation zones by a notable margin. While the market may have entered a bearish structure, full capitulation has not materialized yet.
The gap between current readings and historical bottoms suggests further downside potential remains possible. Market participants should prepare for extended weakness based on these historical comparisons.
Aggregated Metrics Signal Continued Weakness
Bitcoin BCMI aggregates multiple on-chain metrics, including MVRV ratio, NUPL, SOPR, and market sentiment indicators.
The move into the low 0.2 range reflects shrinking unrealized profits across the network. Realized losses have increased as holders sell at a loss. Sentiment has deteriorated across various market participants.
Valuation compression is currently underway across Bitcoin markets. However, extreme panic territory marked by the 0.1 zone has not been reached.
The absence of capitulation-level readings suggests the market has not yet reached maximum pessimism. Further deterioration could push the index toward historical bottom ranges.
The probability favors continued structural weakness unless Bitcoin BCMI stabilizes and reclaims the 0.4 to 0.5 range. Recovery above these levels would signal a potential regime change back toward healthier market conditions.
Without such stabilization, the bear market transition scenario gains credibility. Market observers should monitor these levels closely for early reversal signals.
True bottom conditions may still lie ahead from a cycle perspective. The market has not yet displayed the characteristics typically associated with major lows.
Patience and risk management remain essential during this transitional phase.
