TLDR:
Bitcoin trades at $104,621, facing crucial support near the $102,000–$104,000 range.
The Fed’s rate stance may determine BTC’s next move, with a dovish tone fueling upside potential.
Bollinger Band width hits a six-month low, signaling potential for explosive price movement.
Long-term holders stay steady while short-term traders exit ahead of the Fed’s policy statement.
Bitcoin is hovering just above $104,000 ahead of today’s highly anticipated U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Traders across crypto, stocks, and commodities are preparing for sharp moves, depending on the Fed’s guidance.
The central bank is expected to hold rates steady, but the tone of its statement may drive market sentiment. Whether rate cuts come this year or are delayed further could shape Bitcoin’s price direction in the short term.
The announcement, scheduled for 2 PM ET, has already pushed volatility indicators to multi-month lows.
Fed Outlook May Drive Short-Term Bitcoin Price Direction
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin trades at $104,621, reflecting a 1.47% drop over the past 24 hours.
According to CoinGecko data, BTC has also shed over 4% this week. Analysts point to the $102,000–$104,000 zone as crucial support. If that level holds and the Fed takes a dovish tone, a bounce toward $110,000 could follow quickly.
Crypto market analyst @CryptoPatel noted that short-term holders are actively selling, while long-term holders remain steady. This division underscores growing uncertainty ahead of the Fed’s decision. On-chain data shows weakening momentum, but no major breakdown yet.
📢 Big Market Update – #FOMC Meeting Today
The U.S. Federal Reserve (FOMC) will announce their decision on interest rates today. This is a big event that can affect the entire market — from #Bitcoin and #Crypto to stocks, gold, and oil.
What’s Expected:▪️ Fed is likely to keep… pic.twitter.com/d6DrZ2leq4
— Crypto Patel (@CryptoPatel) June 18, 2025
Market watchers expect the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates, but the focus is on future policy signals.
If Chair Jerome Powell hints at one rate cut this year, markets may stay calm. However, a more hawkish stance, suggesting fewer or no cuts, could trigger fresh declines in crypto prices.
Commenting on the setup, @IT_Tech_PL highlighted compressed volatility and neutral sentiment, with the Fear & Greed Index slipping to 48. Bollinger Band width on Bitcoin is at its lowest in six months, indicating a major price move is near.
🚨 Bitcoin faces a macro-infused moment of truth
📉 Price: $105,322 (24h -1.34%)📊 ETF Inflows: +$227M | BlackRock: 680K BTC⚠️ Fed decision today – all eyes on 20:00 CEST
🔑 Key zones:Support: $102K–$104KBreakout: $108.9K+ Breakdown: <$98.3K kills bullish structure
🧠… pic.twitter.com/QrbKL3bjC0
— IT Tech (@IT_Tech_PL) June 18, 2025
Global Pressure Adds to Market Jitters
Beyond U.S. monetary policy, Crypto Patel noted that the rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are feeding inflation concerns.
These external pressures may influence the Fed’s approach, possibly reinforcing a tighter stance. If inflation risks remain elevated, the central bank may choose to delay any rate cuts.
Institutions continue accumulating BTC despite short-term turbulence. Reports suggest large players like BlackRock are maintaining substantial holdings, while banks such as BBVA recommend modest exposure to Bitcoin and Ethereum for high-net-worth clients.
Analysts advise caution until the Fed statement is released. @IT_Tech_PL noted that Bitcoin must hold the $102,000 level to preserve its bullish structure. A drop below $98,300 could reverse the trend, while a breakout above $108,900 may spark a renewed rally.
Today’s outcome could define Bitcoin’s path in the weeks ahead.
