TLDR
Trump’s new tariffs are causing market uncertainty but could benefit Bitcoin according to Arthur Hayes
Hayes predicts Bitcoin needs to hold $76.5K support level until tax day (April 15)
Bitcoin experienced worst Q1 performance in 7 years, dropping 12% since Trump took office
Hayes forecasts Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by 2025 if the Fed shifts to quantitative easing
Major institutional developments include Grayscale’s ETF filing and Circle’s upcoming IPO
Bitcoin is experiencing a period of volatility as new tariffs, Federal Reserve policies, and tax season create market uncertainty. However, several crypto analysts, particularly BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, suggest these economic headwinds could ultimately drive Bitcoin to new heights.
The Trump administration recently announced a wave of new tariffs taking effect April 5. All countries will face a baseline 10% tariff, with higher rates for specific nations – China at 34%, European Union at 20%, and Japan at 24%.
While these tariffs have initially rattled markets, Hayes views them as potentially positive for Bitcoin. “Global imbalances will be corrected, and the pain papered over with printed money, which is good for BTC,” Hayes stated in an April 3 post on X.
Some of y’all are running scurred, but I LOVE TARIFFS, some chart porn to understand why.
Global imbalances will be corrected, and the pain papered over with printed money, which is good for $BTC. pic.twitter.com/jc5eZ2VIEa
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) April 4, 2025
Hayes points to several factors that could fuel Bitcoin’s growth amid economic disruption. One is the weakening of the US Dollar Index as overseas investors sell US stocks and “bring money home.” April 3 saw “the largest single-day point loss for the Nasdaq 100 in history,” according to trading resource The Kobeissi Letter.
Market Impact and Support Levels
Bitcoin currently trades around $83,000, but has shown weakness since Trump’s inauguration on January 20. The first quarter of 2025 saw a 12% decline in Bitcoin’s price, marking its worst first-quarter performance in seven years.
Hayes believes Bitcoin needs to maintain a key support level of $76,500 until Tax Day on April 15 to sustain its upward momentum. During the March tariff announcements, Bitcoin dipped to $76,623, testing this critical support area.
We need Fed easing, the 2yr treasury yield dumped after Tariff annc because the market is telling us the Fed will be cutting soon and possibly restarting QE to counter -ve economic impact. pic.twitter.com/081kiGf9Jk
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) April 4, 2025
The stringent tariff on China could lead to a weakening yuan (CNY), potentially driving Chinese investors toward Bitcoin as a store of value. “With a 65% effective tariff levied, China could respond by allowing CNY to weaken past 8.00,” Hayes explained.
Federal Reserve’s Crucial Role
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions appear central to Hayes’ Bitcoin outlook. He noted that the two-year Treasury yield “dumped” following the tariff announcement, signaling market expectations for rate cuts.
Hayes believes these imbalances cannot be fixed until the Fed intervenes with rate cuts and increased liquidity. “The problem for treasuries is that foreigners can’t buy bonds without dollar exports. The Fed and banking system must ensure a well-functioning treasury market, which means Brrrr,” he wrote, referring to money printing.
Trump has consistently advocated for rate cuts, and Hayes suggests this could be the deciding factor in market revival. During the COVID era, the Fed’s liquidity injections helped push various markets to new highs, a pattern Hayes thinks could repeat.
Jeff Park, head of alpha strategies at Bitwise Invest, shares Hayes’ view. He stated in February that in a “world of weaker dollar and weaker US rates…risk assets in the US will fly through the roof beyond your wildest imagination.”
Long-Term Price Predictions
Hayes has made some of the most striking price predictions for Bitcoin. He forecasts that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by 2025 if the Federal Reserve shifts toward quantitative easing.
His market calls have proven accurate in recent months. Hayes correctly predicted a major correction when Bitcoin traded above $100,000 following Trump’s inauguration, a prediction many dismissed at the time.
Research from Nansen indicates a 70% chance the crypto market will bottom out before June due to global uncertainty over tariff negotiations. Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently down 15% and 22% respectively from their year-to-date highs.
Despite current market pressures, many analysts expect a rebound after Q2 2025, with potential for strong upward momentum in the second half of the year.
The institutional landscape continues to evolve, with Grayscale filing to convert its Digital Large Cap Fund into a publicly traded spot ETF. This fund includes Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, potentially giving retail investors easier access to crypto assets.
Circle, the company behind the USDC stablecoin, is preparing for an IPO with JPMorgan and Citigroup as advisors. The IPO is expected in late April and could value Circle between $4-$5 billion.
Hashgraph is also set to debut its private blockchain, HashSphere, in Q3 2025, targeting regulated industries like asset management, banking, and payment providers.
