TLDR
Bitcoin analyst Tony Severino predicts BTC bull run to end in January 2025 with a top below $150,000
Price could retrace to $50,000 by mid-2027 according to his market cycle analysis
Trump’s pro-crypto stance and potential Strategic Bitcoin Reserve may already be priced in
Historic “new paradigm” events like CME Futures and Coinbase IPO marked previous cycle peaks
Bitcoin currently trading around $99,200, showing some weakness at the $99,000 level
A detailed analysis by crypto market expert Tony Severino suggests Bitcoin’s current bull run may reach its peak earlier than many investors expect. According to his research, the top cryptocurrency could hit its cycle high below $150,000 by January 2025, marking the end of the current upward trend.
Severino shared his analysis through social media platform X, presenting a chart that demonstrates Bitcoin’s adherence to traditional market cycle patterns. The analysis shows that Bitcoin is currently in the final stage of its motive wave, a technical pattern that often precedes major market transitions.
Don’t believe my theory that #Bitcoin could top as soon as January 20, 2025?
Here is the most convincing chart from my latest sub$tack, with $BTC following a textbook example of a “complete” market cycle
Hit my profile pinned post for 30 more charts and additional evidence pic.twitter.com/bnWu2ok8I0
— Tony “The Bull” Severino, CMT (@tonythebullBTC) December 8, 2024
The timing of this potential peak coincides with several key events in the crypto market landscape. Most notably, the analysis points to January 20, 2025, as a possible inflection point for Bitcoin’s price movement. This date aligns with the presidential inauguration in the United States.
Looking at the broader market structure, Severino’s chart indicates that once the current motive wave completes its course, a corrective wave could follow. This correction phase might extend through mid-2027, potentially bringing Bitcoin’s price back to approximately $50,000.
The analysis takes into account the impact of Donald Trump’s pro-cryptocurrency stance, which has already influenced market sentiment. Following Trump’s victory in the presidential election, Bitcoin broke through key resistance levels and rallied to $100,000, demonstrating the market’s positive response to his crypto-friendly policies.
One of Trump’s notable campaign promises includes the creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. While this announcement has generated excitement among investors, Severino suggests that the market may have already factored this information into the current price.
Drawing from the Efficient Market Hypothesis, Severino explains that markets tend to price in new information as soon as it becomes available. This principle suggests that despite Trump’s pro-crypto agenda, the actual implementation of these policies might not drive prices substantially higher than current levels.
The analyst points to historical examples where similar “new paradigm” events marked previous market cycle peaks. The launch of CME Bitcoin Futures and Coinbase’s public listing both generated high expectations for continued price growth but instead coincided with market tops.
When CME Futures launched, many investors believed the new institutional access to Bitcoin would bring fresh capital into the market. However, this event marked the beginning of a bear market. Similarly, Coinbase’s public listing was expected to push Bitcoin beyond $100,000, but it instead marked another cycle peak.
Current market data shows Bitcoin trading around $99,200, with some weakness apparent at the $99,000 level. This price action comes as traders and investors digest these various market factors and adjust their positions accordingly.
The analysis suggests that market participants should pay attention to these historical patterns and technical indicators. Previous cycle peaks often occurred when market sentiment reached high levels of optimism about new developments in the crypto space.
Technical indicators on the chart show Bitcoin following what Severino describes as a “textbook example” of a complete market cycle. The patterns visible in the current price action closely mirror those seen in previous market transitions.
The potential corrective wave that could begin in January 2025 would represent a natural market progression rather than a fundamental weakness in Bitcoin’s value proposition. Such corrections are typical in all financial markets and often provide opportunities for long-term investors.
Trading volume patterns and market momentum indicators support the possibility of a cycle peak in the coming months. These technical factors, combined with the broader market context, contribute to Severino’s prediction of a top below $150,000.
Recent price action shows Bitcoin maintaining levels near $100,000, though with increased volatility. This behavior often precedes major market movements and aligns with the analysis suggesting a potential trend reversal.
