TLDR:
Bitcoin predicted to hit $80-90K if Trump wins, $50K if Harris wins
Bernstein forecasts $200K by end of 2025 regardless of election outcome
Trump has shifted to pro-crypto stance, launching DeFi project
US Bitcoin ETFs have attracted over $20B in assets since January launch
Polymarket shows Trump leading Harris 57.9% to 42.1% in election odds
As the United States prepares for its presidential election, investment firm Bernstein has released new predictions about Bitcoin’s price movement based on potential electoral outcomes.
According to their latest report, a Trump victory could push Bitcoin to between $80,000 and $90,000 in the weeks following the election, while a Harris win might see the price adjust to around $50,000.
The analysis comes from Bernstein’s team, including analysts Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, and Sanskar Chindalia. Their report, released Monday, suggests these price movements would be temporary reactions to the election results rather than long-term trends.
Bitcoin currently trades at $67,830, having recently come within $175 of its all-time high of $73,737 set in March. The cryptocurrency market has shown increased maturity in 2024, partly due to the successful launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January, which have attracted more than $20 billion in assets.
Donald Trump’s stance on cryptocurrency has evolved markedly since his previous presidency. The former president has embraced crypto technology, launching his own decentralized finance project called World Liberty Financial on the Ethereum network. He has also advocated for American dominance in Bitcoin mining, suggesting all future Bitcoin should be mined within the United States.
Prediction markets are closely watching the election’s potential impact on crypto prices. Polymarket, a decentralized predictions platform, shows Trump leading Harris with odds of 57.9% to 42.1%. The platform has seen $3.1 billion in trading volume related to the election outcome.
The regulated Kalshi platform presents a tighter race, with Trump holding 54% to Harris’s 46%. National polling averages show an even closer contest, with Harris maintaining a 1% lead within the margin of error.
Bernstein’s analysts emphasize Bitcoin’s resilience regardless of the election outcome. Their long-term forecast remains steady at $200,000 by the end of 2025, citing factors beyond political influence such as U.S. fiscal policy and monetary expansion.
The success of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has created new market dynamics. These investment vehicles have opened doors for institutional investors who previously faced barriers to cryptocurrency exposure, contributing to increased market stability and growth.
State-by-state election predictions show varying leads in crucial swing states. Trump currently leads in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada on prediction markets, while Harris maintains advantages in Wisconsin and Michigan. Pennsylvania has seen shifting odds, with Trump currently holding a 14% lead after Harris briefly gained an advantage.
Recent market corrections have been attributed to profit-taking and temporary decreases in spot Bitcoin ETF flows, according to BRN analyst Valentin Fournier. Despite these short-term fluctuations, analysts maintain optimism about potential year-end rallies.
The election’s impact extends beyond Bitcoin to other cryptocurrency sectors. Some market observers suggest a Harris victory might benefit Ethereum, as stricter regulations could limit competition from newer investment products.
Bernstein analysts counter this view, arguing that supportive regulation benefits the entire crypto ecosystem rather than creating winners and losers. They note that blockchain platforms like Ethereum and Solana require favorable stablecoin regulations and clear asset classification guidelines to thrive.
The Bitcoin mining sector remains a focus of attention, particularly given its connections to domestic production and energy sourcing for AI computing. Analysts expect the mining industry to maintain growth regardless of election results, though pro-mining policies could attract additional investor interest.
Currently, Bitcoin trades near $68,596, showing a 7% decrease from its recent high of $73,500 on October 29. Market participants continue to monitor election-related developments and their potential impact on cryptocurrency valuations.
