TLDR
Bitcoin has formed two golden cross patterns – one traditional (50/200-day MA) and one MVRV-based
Previous golden cross in late 2023 led to 110% gain from $34K to $73K
Analysts project potential Bitcoin price targets of $135K-$148K
Historical MVRV ratio golden crosses preceded gains of 69%-638%
Trading system based on 50/200-day MA crosses since 2018 would have yielded ~$58,500 in profits
Bitcoin’s price trajectory is showing promising technical signals as two different types of golden crosses have formed on the charts, according to multiple market analysts.
Currently trading at $72,410, Bitcoin has captured the attention of technical analysts who are pointing to historical patterns that could indicate further upside potential.
A traditional golden cross pattern has emerged on Bitcoin’s daily chart, with the 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day moving average.
Market analyst Crypto Rand notes that the previous golden cross in late 2023 preceded a substantial rally, driving Bitcoin’s price from $34,000 to over $73,000 in March 2024 – representing a 110% increase over four months.
First Golden Cross for #Bitcoin in 1 year…the previous one took $BTC from $34K to $72K a 110% increase.
If we go through the same pattern…it would take #Bitcoin to $148K within 5 months.
More insight: https://t.co/N3WuQcWWkm
Are you ready? 👀 pic.twitter.com/PQMZ5YAO16
— Crypto Rand (@crypto_rand) October 29, 2024
Based on this historical precedent, Crypto Rand projects that Bitcoin could reach approximately $148,000 in the coming months.
The analyst’s timeline suggests this target might be achieved by early to mid-2025, measuring 137 days from the initial golden cross formation.
Adding weight to the bullish technical setup, analyst Ali Martinez has identified a second golden cross formation in Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio.
This metric, which compares Bitcoin’s current price to its average purchase price, has crossed above its 365-day simple moving average.
Historical data supports the importance of MVRV ratio golden crosses. Previous instances in 2020, 2021, and 2023 preceded price increases of 638%, 69%, and 236% respectively, according to Martinez’s analysis.
Veteran market analyst Peter Brandt has also weighed in, suggesting a potential price target of $135,000. However, Brandt maintains that Bitcoin has not yet recorded a breakout for this second leg of the current upward movement.
The upcoming U.S. presidential election could serve as a catalyst for Bitcoin’s next move. Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s Head of Research for Digital Assets, points to Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional assets as a bullish indicator heading into the election period.
A detailed examination of the 50-day and 200-day moving average trading system since 2018 reveals its effectiveness as a strategy. The system would have generated approximately $58,500 in profits through six trades as Bitcoin moved from $5,000 to $74,000.
The first profitable trade began in April 2019 at $5,000, with subsequent trades capturing major moves in the market. Four out of six trades would have been profitable, with losses being relatively minor compared to the gains.
May 2020’s golden cross proved particularly lucrative, triggering near $10,000 and riding Bitcoin’s strongest recent bullish trend. This trade closed at $35,000 with the June 2021 death cross, securing $25,000 in profits.
The most recent completed trade began with October 2023’s golden cross at $35,000 and closed at $62,000, adding another substantial profit to the system’s track record.
Two golden crosses have appeared since the 2022 bear market bottom, with the first pushing Bitcoin from $16,000 to $23,000, and the second catalyzing a 100% price increase.
The latest golden cross in October 2024 shares timing similarities with previous patterns, occurring just months after a death cross, similar to late 2023’s sequence.
