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‘Foolish’ to deny Bitcoin price can go under $10K — Analysis



Bitcoin (BTC) preserved $20,000 for another day on June 23 with calls for another 20% drop still surfacing.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Bitcoin under $10,000 not impossible

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD ranging just above the $20,000 mark over the 24 hours to the time of writing.

As ever, the behavior reflected moves in United States equities markets, which stayed flat on the day.

Remarks by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell had provided only brief volatility. Cointelegraph noted that Powell’s Congress testimony provided no new information regarding macro policy.

As such, crypto commentators stuck to previous assertions — the outlook was uncertain, they said, but a potential fresh drawdown may only involve a trip to $16,000.

“Consolidating $BTC in a broad range and then going up. MDD (maximum drawdown) is not that big like -20%,” Ki Young Ju, CEO of on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, wrote in part of a Twitter post. 

Ki retweeted analysis from popular account Il Capo of Crypto, whose BTC takes had long called for price downside.

In a separate post, Ki claimed that “most Bitcoin cyclic indicators are saying the bottom” is in, and that shorting BTC at current levels was therefore ill-advised.

“Not sure how long it would take for consolidation in this range tho. Opening a big short position here sounds not a good idea unless you think that $BTC is going to zero,” he wrote.

For monitoring resource Material Indicators, however, there was cause to be more risk averse.

“At this stage, nobody can say with certainty whether BTC will hold this range or if it will go to sub $10K price levels ever again, but it would be foolish not to have a plan for that possibility,” a tweet argued.

“‘Never’ doesn’t age well in crypto. Plan accordingly.”

Fed does not plan to “de-COVID” balance sheet

In fresh macro news, increasing pressure on the Eurozone came in the form of surging natural gas prices on a dwindling supply outlook.

Related: Bitcoin hodler data hints BTC price ‘really close’ to bottom — analysts

In the United States, meanwhile, Powell delivered fresh comments over the Fed’s monetary tightening policy.

The central bank’s balance sheet reduction, he said in comments reported by media sources at the time of writing, now only planned to shave up to $3 trillion off its near $9 trillion of asset purchases.

Since February 2020, the Fed’s balance sheet has gained $4.8 trillion, meaning that even after the reductions, it will be higher than its pre-pandemic levels.

Federal Reserve balance sheet chart (screenshot). Source: Federal Reserve

The European Central Bank’s balance sheet, meanwhile, hit fresh all-time highs this week despite rampant inflation.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.